ONS points out that Brazil will have an electrical power deficit in November

The increase in electricity demand will increase the need for the Federal Government to carry out emergency energy contracting, imports and flexibility in the operation of hydroelectric plants in the second half of this year. This was indicated in a technical note, released this Thursday (22), by the ONS (National System Operator).

The document was prepared following a request made by the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy). The update considered two different scenarios (one conservative and one not) and identified that, in both cases, there is a risk of a deficit in electrical power between the months of October and November.

The study highlights, however, that there is still no risk of shortages in the country, even in the face of the worst hydrological sequences in the entire history of flows over the last 91 years. Despite this, the point that draws the most attention is the fact that, in the worst possible scenario, Brazil may have to import 2 GW of energy to supply the energy capacity in November.

Furthermore, even in the scenario where surpluses occur, the situation “is not very comfortable due to the various existing uncertainties, such as the level of thermal unavailability and more restrictive transmission limits”, informs the ONS.

Scenarios analyzed

In the first simulation, the forecast for activating the thermoelectric park was more conservative and did not consider the operation of all unavailable units. In this hypothesis, the research also considered points such as the flexibility of transmission limits and new requests for flexibility for hydroelectric plant basins, in addition to maximizing thermal dispatch outside the order of merit.

The second scenario, in turn, was analyzed with a greater participation of thermal plants, considering the need to import energy from neighboring countries and thermal dispatch outside the order of merit. This part of the study also took into account possible changes in the flexibilities already in force and also contemplated possible changes in the transmission limits defined according to the network procedures.

Reservoirs

Regarding Brazilian reservoirs, projections carried out by the ONS estimate that it is very likely that some hydroelectric plants will arrive in November with water levels below historic lows. In the Southeast/Mid-West subsystem, which accounts for more than 70% of Brazilian energy consumption, the rates may vary, for example, from 10% to 12,6%.