ONS publishes planning results for the electricity sector until 2028

The ONS (National Electric System Operator) presented this month the initial results of the SIN (National Interconnected System) Medium-Term Electrical Operation Plan – PAR/PEL 2023. The study covers the period between 2024 and 2028.

For the cycle, there are estimated R$49 billion in investments. Of this amount, R$4,9 billion will be allocated to new works, while the remainder will be attributed to constructions previous cycles.

In total, five states concentrate around 70% of the investment predicted: Maranhão (R$ 9,9 billion), Goiás (R$ 8,5 billion), Minas Gerais (R$ 7,3 billion), Piauí (R$ 4,7 billion) and Bahia (R$ 4,6 billion).

Renewable sources

The Operator also analyzed the importance transmission and the challenges of variable renewable sources. “Increased participation causes greater complexity in managing energy supply and demand”, they reported.

The forecast is that by 2027 centralized wind and photovoltaic plants will reach 54 GW. At the moment the mark is 38 GW. However, these data do not include an expansion of Distributed Micro and Minigeneration, which could reach 40 GW by 2027.

According to the ONS, in this configuration flexibility will be necessary to enable control of load balance and generation to optimize the transmission system. “Flexibility helps respond to variations while maintaining the lowest possible cost.” 

Other analyzes

Another point analyzed is that this expansion will allow the flow of excess energy produced in the North/Northeast fully to the South/Southeast for energy supply from 2029/2030. 

The PAR/PEL seeks to evaluate the performance of the SIN over the next five years. The aim is to carry out future operations within safety requirements. The results of the study will be available on website from the ONS.