This week, the ONS (National Electric System Operator) revised the projections for the national electricity load for September. Previously, the forecast was for growth of 5% (74.673 MWmed), but now the data points to a variation of 5,6% (75.075 MWmed).
See below the expected load progress for each submarket in September:
- North – 10,2% (7.682 MWmed);
- Southeast/Central-West – 6% (42.724 MWmed);
- Northeast – 4,7% (12.418 MWmed);
- South – 2,4% (12.251 MWmed).
The percentages compare the results for the end of September 2023, compared to the same period last year.
The ENA (Affluent Natural Energy) projections, according to the ONS, are compatible with the typically dry period currently underway.
There was an increase in indications in three subsystems: the South region should reach 193% (106% in the previous review) of the MLT (Long Term Average), the Southeast/Central-West, 90% of the MLT (85%) and the Northeast 79 % of MLT (76%). The forecast for the North region is an ENA of 64% of the MLT. The data presented considers the date of September 30th.
Estimates for EAR (Stored Energy) remain stable and with the possibility of three subsystems ending the current month with levels above 70%: South (91,7%), Southeast/Central-West (73,5%) and North (71,5%).
In relation to the Southeast/Central-West, if this horizon is confirmed, it will be the best EAR level for September in the entire historical series started in 2000. The Northeast should reach 69,1%.
The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost) remains at zero in all subsystems throughout 2023 and maintains this standard in September.
