ONS revises cargo growth forecast, estimated at 2,2% in June

Electricity load growth will be 702 MWmed lower in June than predicted at the beginning of the month. According to the ONS (National System Operator), the load of the National Interconnected System is expected to reach, at the end of the month, 69.971 MWmed, which represents a growth of 2,2% compared to the same period a year earlier. However, initially the Operator estimated a growth of 3,3% (60.763 MWmed).

The regions with prospects for expansion are the North, with 14,3% (7.112 MWmed), the Northeast, 6,9% (11.729 MWmed), and the Southeast/Central-West, 0,2% (39.031 MWmed). The South submarket continues with a trend of reduction in load: – 1,5% (12.099 MWmed). The data presented compares estimates for month six of 2023, compared to the same period last year.

The data are from the latest bulletin of the Monthly Operations Program (PMO), for the operating week between June 24th and 30th

Also according to the ONS, energy storage in the North and Southeast submarkets is expected to reach record levels, reaching 99,6% and 86,2%, respectively. All subsystems will be above 80%, 88% in the South and 84% in the Northeast.

The prospects for Affluent Natural Energy (ENA) for the end of the current month are compatible with what is expected for the typically dry period, but we are already aware that this season we will have the typical effects of the El Niño phenomenon, with forecast rainfall in greater volume. high in the South region, above average temperatures in the Center-South and reduced precipitation in the North and Northeast.

Therefore, the Southeast/Central-West, a region that concentrates 70% of the reservoirs relevant to the SIN, maintained the prospect of reaching the highest percentage among all subsystems on the last day of June: 94% of the Long Term Average (MLT) . Next, the North region presents the possibility of reaching ENA of 76% of the MLT, the South registers 63% of the MLT and, finally, the Northeast with 51% of the MLT.