Os photovoltaic system prices presented, in the 1st half of 2023, a 17% reduction in June compared to January. This is what the new Strategic Study of Distributed Generation, greener.
Decrease in module costs, devaluation of the dollar and high level of wholesale equipment inventory were factors that contributed to the drop in prices for the final consumer.
“Despite the challenging first half of the year for the solar market, the drop in prices and the tendency to reduce interest rates bring a more favorable scenario for investment in own generation”, observed Marcio Takata, director of Greener.
Regarding the average prices of kits in June 2023, the report showed that they showed an average reduction of 23% compared to January this year.
“In addition to the reduction in kit costs, the drop in retail prices was exacerbated by low market demand and the high volume of distributors’ inventory,” said the study.
The average price of the integration service showed a drop of 7% in June 2023 compared to January of the same year. “The market slowdown, reflected in the low demand for photovoltaic systems mainly in retail, may have contributed to this behavior”, reported Greener.
Residential system (4 kWp) in reais
Commercial system (50 kWp) in reais
Industrial system on roof (1 MWp) in reais
Payback
Greener analyzed two scenarios, Scenario 1 being between the payback of GD I and GD II in January 2023, considering only the regulatory change after January 7, 2023 and; Scenario 2, providing a comparative analysis between the payback of GD II in January and June 2023, also taking into account the temporal change in tariff and equipment price variables.
According to the study, there was an improvement in the return on investment in photovoltaic systems, with a 15% reduction in payback for local residential installations compared to January 2023, with the reduction in CAPEX being the main factor for this variation.
Therefore, the research showed that the systems remain attractive to the end consumer for local generation systems, which represent 75% of the installed power. For remote generation projects, the impact on attractiveness is greater.
“On the other hand, the high interest rate and high perception of risk on the part of financing agents contributed to the credit restriction”, they highlighted.
Given the scenario of difficulty in accessing credit and doubts regarding regulatory changes, there was a 60% drop in sales made in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
“In this context, with the significant reduction in total sales, financed sales gain greater importance, representing 48% of the total”, indicated the report.
Polysilicon price
Another highlight of the Distributed Generation Strategic Study is the price of polysilicon, which reached 9,1 USD/kg in June 2023, a drop of 46% compared to January of the same year, showing stability in the following weeks.
The excess supply of polycrystalline silicon resulting from the increase in production capacity in China and the consequent increase in stock levels were factors that contributed to this variation.
Price of steel, copper and lithium
The price of steel fell by 12% compared to January 2023, reaching 527 USD/t in June 2023. The decrease in consumption in China due to the economic slowdown has contributed to the devaluation of the input. The price of steel impacts the cost of manufacturing fixing structures, especially for ground-based photovoltaic plants.
The cost of copper increased by 16% in June 2023 compared to January of the same year. “Variation in the price of copper can impact the production costs of conductive and electronic components, influencing the costs of photovoltaic systems”, emphasized the research.
Regarding the cost of lithium, there was a 41% drop in June compared to January 2023. The price of lithium is directly related to the production and demand for lithium-ion batteries.
Variation in input prices (dollar basis)
In addition to the data mentioned above, Greener highlighted that, from 2019 to June 2023, lithium and polysilicon showed the biggest variations, reaching an increase of more than 600% and 300%, respectively.
GD Immersion
Next Wednesday (20), at 14pm, there will be the first edition of “GD Immersion”, a face-to-face event in São Paulo, with online transmission, for the analysis of the main points of the GD Study by Greener's Market Intelligence area, followed by a debate with other industry experts. For more information and registration for online or in-person participation, visit the website.
Comments (1)
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I hope that with these new prices, more attractive with these drops, sales will return at least for sales of smaller systems; residential ones, to boost sales. Since the drop in sales had a very negative impact on us; small ones.