Brazil's hydroelectric reservoirs are recovering thanks to the return of rainfall in the headwaters of the rivers. According to the ONS (National Electric System Operator), three subsystems are expected to end December with capacity above 50%, creating prospects for lower energy prices in early 2025.
According to the monthly programming bulletin for the electrical system, the reservoir in the South should reach almost 81% of its capacity, a significant recovery compared to the initial forecast of 58% at the beginning of the month. The Southeast/Central-West and North subsystems should also surpass the 50% mark, with 51,2% and 53,3%, respectively. The Northeast, however, should end the year with 46,2% of its capacity.
Natural Influent Energy (ENA)
The projection for ENA, which measures the amount of water that reaches reservoirs for conversion into energy, is encouraging in the South, with 212% of the historical average. Next comes the Southeast/Central-West (107%), the North (92%) and the Northeast (61%).
Demand in the National Interconnected System (SIN)
The SIN load projection for December is 81.117 average MW, a growth of 0,9% compared to the same period last year. The highlight is the North submarket, with an 8,7% increase in demand (7.914 average MW), followed by the Northeast, which shows growth of 1,8% (13.644 average MW).
On the other hand, the South and Southeast/Central-West subsystems should show a slight drop in consumption, with reductions of 0,4% (13.771 MW average) and 0,2% (45.788 MW average), respectively.
The scenario of reservoir recovery combined with stable or slightly increasing demand could contribute to a start to 2025 with better conditions in the electricity sector.
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