The share of renewables in the global energy mix is set to reach around 60% by 2050, BP said in its latest energy outlook report. According to Spencer Dale, BP’s chief economist, the speed of this increase will be determined by whether or not policies to encourage renewables are adopted.
The expert cited sources such as solar, wind, biomass and geothermal as the protagonists for this expansion, with the first two being at the forefront of this process. This panorama presented by BP is premised on the perspective that global energy demand is growing, driven by increased prosperity and living standards in the emerging world. Dale cited the electrification of systems and mobility as a key driver of this consumption.
Increasing solar and wind capacity
The study looked at three scenarios that explore different paths for the global energy system to 2050. In its 'Rapid' and 'Net Zero' scenarios, the average annual increase in solar and wind capacity over the next 15 years could be 350 GW and 550 GW, respectively.
Even under BAU (business as usual), the average annual build rate of 235 GW of solar and wind capacity relative to the outlook is still considerably higher than previous rates. According to BP, in all three scenarios, emerging economies account for the bulk of renewables expansion, driven by stronger growth in power generation and the increasing share of renewables in the energy mix, especially at the expense of coal.
Fall of oil and fossil fuels
As for oil and fossil fuels, all scenarios show a drop in demand over the next 30 years: 10% lower by 2050 in 'business as usual', around 55% lower in 'Rapid' and 80% lower in 'Net Zero'. In BAU, demand stabilizes in the early 2020s and in the others it never fully recovers from the drop caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Even though the pandemic has drastically reduced global carbon emissions, the world remains on an unsustainable path. However, analysis of the outlook shows that with decisive policy measures and more low-carbon choices by businesses and consumers, the energy transition can still be delivered,” said Bernard Looney, CEO of BP.
About the three scenarios
'Rapid' assumes the introduction of policy measures, led by a significant increase in carbon prices, that result in emissions from energy use falling by around 70% by 2050 relative to 2018 levels.
'Net Zero' assumes that 'Rapid' policy measures are reinforced by significant changes in societal and consumer behavior and preferences – such as greater adoption of circular and sharing economies and the shift to low-carbon energy sources. This increases the reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 to more than 95%.
'Business as usual' assumes that government policies, technologies and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and at a speed seen in the recent past. Carbon emissions from energy use peak in the mid-2020s but do not decline significantly, with emissions in 2050 less than 10% below 2018 levels.
