The capacity of Brazilian reservoirs will reach even more critical levels in November, due to the effects of the water crisis. The statement was made by Christiano Vieira da Silva, secretary of electrical energy at the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), this Tuesday (17), at a public hearing held by the Mines and Energy Committee of the Chamber of Deputies.
“We should reach November with the reservoirs operating at very low levels, around 11 to 14%. The lowest level we have reached in this period was in 2014, with 19% in the interconnected system,” he said.
“When we look only at the conditions in the Southeast region, we are talking about reaching 8%,” he revealed. According to him, the predicted scenario considers a repeat of the volume of rainfall recorded between October and December last year. “We are imagining the same scenario in 2021, with scarce rainfall,” he commented.
“We are considering a very adverse scenario. If it rains, we will have a more comfortable situation,” he emphasized. According to data from the MME, Brazilian hydroelectric plants have not operated at more than 80% of their storage capacity during the rainy season for nine years. In November of last year, during the dry season, capacity was close to 30%.
Measures taken
During the meeting, the secretary said that the Brazilian water situation is worrying and that actions are being taken to avoid the risk of shortages. Among the measures are the activation of thermoelectric plants and the purchase of energy from neighboring countries, such as Argentina and Uruguay.
The executive also pointed out that the Ministry reduced the water flow at the Jupiá and Porto Primavera plants; established minimum operating quotas for the reservoirs of the Ilha Solteira and Três Irmãos hydroelectric plants, and made the operation of the reservoirs on the São Francisco River more flexible.
According to Silva, the actions were taken to store water resources and ensure greater use of thermal power plants until the end of the year. “We need to save water so that it can be used at times when the system needs it most, which is basically at the end of the dry season, in October and November,” he said.
The secretary also mentioned other actions that are being taken, but none involve investments in renewables. The main measures are awareness campaigns for the responsible use of water and electricity, and the anticipation of thermal plants and transmission lines under construction since May of this year.
tariff flags
The public hearing of the Chamber of Deputies also had the participation of Elisa Bastos Silva, director of ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), to talk about the increase in the value of tariff flags, which, in 2021 alone, registered three consecutive increases.
The executive said she understands that the increases harm consumers' finances, especially the less privileged, but reiterated that the country is going through a time of water shortage and that there are no alternatives other than charging a higher price for energy use. "We are experiencing the worst water crisis in the last 91 years. So, in this case, the tariff flags are a way of making the criticality of this situation transparent," she said.
Although not confirmed, Elisa hinted that new increases in red flag 2 should happen in 2021, since the increases are not able to cover the cost of operating thermal plants. In July, the entity approved a 52% adjustment on red flag 2 and the price rose from R$6,24 to R$9,49 for every 100 kWh consumed.
“Even with the approval of these new values, there is still concern about the risk of a deficit in the flag accounts, due to the increase in generation costs,” she commented. “The amount we charge in the flags, in theory, has to be sufficient to cover this balance, but from January to June we have already accumulated a negative balance of R$3 billion. Not increasing the red flag 2 would mean tariff pressure in the 2022 adjustments,” highlighted the director of ANEEL.
According to Elisa, without a reduction in consumption, the costs of dispatching thermal power plants should reach more than R$11 billion between January and November of this year. “Depending on the evolution of consumption, these costs could be even higher, due to new exceptional measures, with more expensive thermal generation and energy imports from neighboring countries,” she highlighted.
Renewable
During the meeting, the director of ANEEL She also highlighted the importance of renewable sources in diversifying the national energy matrix, which in 2006 was 85% hydroelectric and 14% thermal. “Today, hydroelectricity has fallen to 62%, while thermal energy accounts for 25%. Wind and solar energy account for 10% and 2%, respectively,” she said.
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For the executive, the growth of two clean energy sources deserves much attention. “We have seen consecutive records of wind generation in the Northeast, at times even exceeding total demand,” she commented. “On the other hand, photovoltaic solar generation has grown, mainly in distributed generation solutions. Furthermore, it should grow even more in the coming years in hybrid projects, in particular, in associations with existing wind farms”, she highlighted.
