The MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) and EPE (Energy Research Company) released the new technical notebook for PDE 2035 (Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan), focusing on the evolution of MMGD (micro and mini distributed generation) and the role of batteries behind the meter in the electrical system.
According to the study, distributed generation could reach between 61 and 98 GW of installed capacity by 2035, depending on the pace of adoption and incentives for the sector. Currently, this figure is approximately 42 GW.
In the most likely scenario, approximately 9,5 million consumer units will have their own generation systems, primarily through solar panels. Currently, MMGD accounts for approximately 5,6% of the country's electricity generation and 13% of regulated consumption.
The residential segment is the main driver of this advance, driven by the falling costs of solar technology and clearer public policies, such as Law No. 14.300 – which has regulated the sector since 2022.
Energy storage gains prominence with falling costs
The study also highlights the growing role of batteries in the electrical system. The reduction in global battery prices lithium-ion batteries has made energy storage a more accessible alternative for consumers of different profiles.
According to EPE, when costs fall below R$2.000 per kWh, the investment can become viable, including as a replacement for diesel generators used during peak demand periods.
Even though the financial return is still limited in some scenarios, the expectation of further reductions in equipment prices and the possibility of regulatory changes from 2029 onwards make this market increasingly attractive.
According to projections, accumulated investments in the sector residential batteries could exceed R$200 billion by the end of the next decade. Check out the full study, clicking here.
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