Electricity bills were the item that most pressured inflation in September 2026, with a rise of 7,98% and an impact of 0,32 percentage points on the IPCA (National Consumer Price Index).
The result contributed to Brazil's official inflation reaching 0,82% for the month and accumulating 4,58% over 12 months, above the 4,5% limit set by the Central Bank.
The data, released this Friday (9) by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), shows that September registered the highest inflation for the month since 2021, when the index advanced 1,16%. The result was also the highest since March 2026, when the IPCA was at 0,88%.
Among the 377 products and services surveyed by IBGE, residential electricity had the largest individual contribution to September's inflation. It alone accounted for 39% of the monthly variation in the index.
The main factor for the increase in the electricity bill was the End of the Itaipu Bonus, discount granted on electricity bills for eligible consumers in August.
Without the benefit in September, bills returned to their usual values, raising the price of electricity when comparing the two months, even for consumers who maintained the same consumption.
In addition to the end of the bonus program, tariff adjustments in different regions of the country also put pressure on electricity bills. In Belém (PA), São Luís (MA) and Vitória (ES), for example, tariffs rose by 6,63%, 5,42% and 6,89%, respectively.
Although they occurred in specific locations, these increases influenced the national IPCA result, which considers price variations in different Brazilian regions.
Inflation exceeds target limit.
With the increase recorded in September, the accumulated inflation over 12 months reached 4,58%, exceeding the 4,5% limit established for the inflation target.
The National Monetary Council (CMN) set a central target of 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1,5 percentage points above or below. In practice, this means that inflation can vary between 1,5% and 4,5% without exceeding the established limits.
Although the index exceeded the upper limit in September, this does not automatically represent a formal failure to meet the target.
Under current rules, the target is considered unmet when the accumulated inflation over 12 months remains outside the tolerance range for six consecutive months.
How is the IPCA calculated?
The IPCA is the main indicator of official inflation in Brazil and measures the monthly variation in prices of products and services consumed by families covered by the survey.
The survey is conducted in ten metropolitan regions: Belém (PA), Fortaleza (CE), Recife (PE), Salvador (BA), Belo Horizonte (MG), Vitória (ES), Rio de Janeiro (RJ), São Paulo (SP), Curitiba (PR), and Porto Alegre (RS).
The research also includes Brasília (DF) and the municipalities of Goiânia (GO), Campo Grande (MS), Rio Branco (AC), São Luís (MA) and Aracaju (SE).
Based on the prices collected in these locations, IBGE calculates the national inflation rate, considering the weight of each product or service in the budget of the families surveyed.
Therefore, significant increases in essential expenses, such as residential electricity, can have a strong influence on the indicator, as happened in September.
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