The MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) and EPE (Energy Research Company) launched, this Monday (06), the first notebook of National Energy Plan (PNE) 2055. The study assesses the main trends and uncertainties for the horizon, in addition to bringing together qualitative energy scenarios that are inputs for both the construction of the new edition of the PNE 2055 and the National Energy Transition Plan (Plante).
The booklet explores different possibilities for the future, and dealing effectively with the main uncertainties that arise are challenges inherent to long-term planning. According to the publication, new themes are emerging, bringing with them a series of transformations in energy systems, which require constant monitoring and a broad, long-term vision of each one of them.
Among these changes, according to the booklet, are those related to the climate, the energy transition, the evolution of technological innovations and consumer habits, which increases the complexity of the external environment.
During the process of developing the plan, the MME highlighted that there was a careful analysis that focused on mapping factors that have a relevant influence on the future evolution of the energy system in Brazil. This dynamic resulted in the definition of seven major trends and twenty uncertainties for the 2055 horizon, which, in general, shaped the construction of five possible future trajectories.
In this sense, foresight and scenario building methods stand out as valuable instruments, supporting the understanding of this complex environment and facilitating long-term planning.
“These methods not only help create a shared vision of the future among the various agents involved, but also contribute to achieving the desired future, adopting a systemic and non-linear approach”, pointed out Thiago Barral, National Secretary for Energy Transition and Planning at the MME.
Thiago Prado, president of EPE, emphasized that the Energy Scenarios notebook groups the main inputs produced between March 2023 and June 2024, as part of the construction of PNE 2055. “The participatory process, conducted by EPE in collaboration with MME, represents an innovative approach in the development of long-term scenario studies”, he concluded.
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