The cumulative installed capacity of distributed micro and mini-generation (MMGD) is expected to reach 72,5 GW in 2030, according to a new projection prepared by the ONS (National System Operator) and the CCEE (Chamber of Electric Energy Commercialization).Electric Energy Trading Chamber) and by EPE (Energy Research Company), released last Friday (07/08).
The volume represents an increase of 5 GW, or 7,4%, compared to the estimate presented in the first Quarterly Review of the Annual Energy Operation Plan 2026-2030.
Average generation from distributed generation (DG), considering the existing base and the planned expansion, should increase from an average of 8.536 MW in 2026 to an average of 11.240 MW by the end of the decade, equivalent to an average annual growth of 9,6%.
Of the total projected for 2030, the Southeast/Central-West region will account for an average of 5.868 MW. This is followed by the Northeast, with an average of 2.386 MW; the South, with an average of 2.001 MW; and the North, with an average of 985 MW.
Among the factors that may favor expansion, the study cites the incentives for energy storage established by Law No. 15.269/2025, the Reidi benefit for mini-generation, the growth of zero-grid systems, the expansion of electric vehicles, and the pent-up demand for electricity.
On the other hand, the projection considers risks such as high interest rates, increased import tax on inverters, rising charges for Fio B (a type of cable), and denials of access permits related to reverse flow.
The document also points to uncertainties surrounding tax reform, potential generation cuts applied to MMGD (Distributed Generation), and possible changes to the white tariff.
The new estimate for distributed generation is part of the revised load forecasts for the Brazilian Interconnected System (SIN). The study projects that the total system load will grow by an average of 4,5% per year, reaching an average of 101.947 MW in 2030.
all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.
Comments
Comments are moderated before publication.Comments should be respectful and contribute to a healthy debate. Offensive comments may be removed. The opinions expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the author. Canal Solar.