A national electricity demand must reach 77.513 MWmed in October, which will represent a 6,3% growth in comparison with the same month of the previous year, according to estimates from the ONS (National System Operator). The value is higher than the 5,9% previously indicated.
As high temperatures (which lead to greater use of refrigerators and air conditioning) and the heating of some sectors of the economy (commerce and services) may explain this result.
In August and September, load growth was 3,3% (72.734 MWmed) and 5,8% (75.234 MWmed), respectively.
See the load forecast for the four electrical subsystems in October in an annual comparison:
Southeast/Midwest: 43.996 MWmed (+5,8%)
South: 12.611 MWmed (+4,6%)
Northeast: 13.144 MWmed (6,6%)
North: 7.762 MWmed (+11,4%)
Hydroelectric reservoirs
The ONS forecast is that at least three subsystems should have stored energy (EAR) above 60%. For the South region, the indicated ENA is 96,6% and for the Southeast/Central-West it is 69,3%, both numbers higher than those released last week (95,2% and 68,4%, respectively) .
“If what is predicted for the Southeast/Central-West is confirmed, a region that concentrates 70% of the most relevant reservoirs for the SIN, the index will be 19,8 pp higher than October 2022 and the best result for the time in the entire series history that began in 2000”, says the ONS.
The forecasts for the Northeast and North are 61% and 56,5%, in that order.
The amount of rain reaching the reservoirs, known as Affluent Natural Energy (ENA), is also expected to increase in relation to previous projections.
The South continues with the possibility of reaching the highest ENA: 345% of the Long Term Average (MLT), compared to 264% of the MLT in the previous review. The Southeast/Central-West should reach 99% of the MLT (92%) and the North could reach 64% of the MLT (56%).
The Northeast subsystem has an opposite behavior, with a reduction in the ENA projection, which should end October at 48% (compared to a forecast of 52%).
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