The MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy) and EPE (Energy Research Company) released this Wednesday (3) the Oil and Natural Gas Production Notebook PDE 2035, which brings together projections for the sector in the next decade.
The document indicates that Brazil is expected to reach a new level of oil and natural gas production in the next decade, with continuous growth in volumes, but with lower specific emissions, due to the productive profile of the pre-salt layer.
Overall, projections indicate that national oil production could reach 4,9 million barrels per day in 2035, peaking at 5,1 million barrels per day in 2032. This volume represents a 44% increase compared to 2024.
This progress would be sustained mainly by resources already discovered, which should account for about 92% of the estimated production in 2035, in addition to the strong contribution of the pre-salt layer, which should concentrate approximately 76% of national production by the end of the period.
Among the strategic projects, the Búzios field stands out with the start of operations of six new production units by 2030. The combined capacity could reach approximately 1,7 million barrels per day in 2030 and 1,1 million barrels per day in 2035.
Productive expansion also occurs in a diversified manner across regulatory regimes, according to the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). By 2035, concessions are expected to account for approximately 50% of production, production sharing for approximately 39%, and onerous transfer for approximately 11%.
Natural gas: gross production could double by 2035
In the case of natural gas, the report projects that gross production could reach 299 million m³/day in 2035, peaking at 309 million m³/day in 2033, representing a 95% increase compared to 2024.
Net production, after deducting for self-consumption, flaring, losses and reinjection, is expected to reach 127 million m³/day in 2035, representing a growth of 154% over the period.
As with oil, gas production is expected to continue to be heavily dominated by newly discovered resources, which will account for 96% of gross production and 93% of net production.
Pre-salt reserves are expected to account for 80% of gross production and 61% of net natural gas production by the end of the PDE (Energy Development Plan) horizon. The study also indicates that undiscovered resources could begin producing from 2030 onwards, representing approximately 7% of national production in 2035.
Onshore production shows recovery.
Onshore production, although representing a smaller share of the national total, shows a consistent recovery trajectory. The study estimates that it will reach 296 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2035, peaking at 332 in 2034 – representing a 28% growth compared to 2024.
"The growing participation of independent producers, which could exceed 60% of onshore production by 2035, reflects the impact of public policies such as royalty reductions, the extension of concession contracts, and Petrobras' divestment program, which have boosted the revitalization of mature fields and stimulated regional development," states the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME).
The complete study of the Oil and Natural Gas Production Notebook of the PDE 2035 is available for public consultation here. link.
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