The contracting of 2,5 GW of new natural gas-fired thermal power plants, as planned by project approved by the Senate Infrastructure Committee (CI)The announcement last week could generate an additional R$480 million per year in losses and increase renewable energy generation cuts in Brazil by about 12% in 2032, according to projections released by [organization name]. Aurora Energy Research.
The study considers the effects of the substitute bill for PL 5.017/2019, which provides for the contracting of five regional blocks of new natural gas-fired thermoelectric plants. According to the proposal, each block will have a capacity of 500 MW, totaling 2,5 GW, with projects planned for Goiás, the Federal District, Rondônia, Minas Gerais, and Maranhão.
If the project is approved in the remaining stages of the legislative process and signed into law, the power plants should be operational by July 2032 and operate with a minimum inflexibility of 70%. Together, the new thermal power plants should generate 15,3 TWh of electricity per year.
“The Northeast registers the most significant effect, as it continues to be a net exporter of energy to the Southeast in 2032, with total curtailment increasing by 3,3 percentage points. In the Southeast, the impact is concentrated in photovoltaic solar energy assets, where curtailment increases by 1,6 percentage points,” explains Júlia Stehmann, research analyst at Aurora.
Why might these thermals increase curtailment?
The impact is mainly related to the expected inflexibility of the new power plants. Since they will have to maintain a minimum level of generation, there will be times when this electricity is entering the system simultaneously with large volumes produced by solar and wind sources.
When there is more energy available than the system can absorb or transport, some generation needs to be reduced. With a portion of thermal generation required to remain in operation, Aurora's modeling indicates that this scenario could increase the cuts imposed on solar and wind sources.
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