O increase in the import tax rate on photovoltaic modules, which went from 9,6% to 25%, added to the reduction of the Chinese government's export tax benefit from 13% to 9% should impact the DG (distributed generation) market, with a 13% increase in the price of solar kits for homes.
The assessment is from greener, a market intelligence consultancy specializing in the solar energy sector. Based on these changes, the company's study projects the following scenario, considering a 4 kWp residential kit:
- Average increase of almost 26% in the price of photovoltaic modules;
- 13% increase in the value of the photovoltaic kit;
- Increase of 6,71% in the return on investment time (payback), extending from 3 years to 3,2 years.
The company also highlighted that, if the freight value for modules imported from China continues to rise and continues to represent 13,87% of the FOB price (Free on Board), the impact on prices could be even greater: 43,42% for nationalized modules and 22% for the photovoltaic kit, while the payback would jump to 3,34 years.
In November, Greener also assessed the impact of the increase in import tax on CG (centralized generation) solar power projects, projecting increase in CAPEX by more than 8%.
According to Marcio Takata, CEO of Greener, imports of solar equipment are responsible for supplying around 95% of the national market.
By the end of September, Brazil had already imported more than 16 GW of photovoltaic modules this year. “Tax and fiscal changes bring challenges to the entire chain, with an impact on costs and the attractiveness of projects, from small-scale systems to large-scale projects,” he said.
Despite this, the executive believes that photovoltaic energy continues to be important for the Brazilian electricity matrix, given the prospect of increasingly frequent and long periods of drought, which are already affecting hydroelectric energy production.
“The sector has already demonstrated resilience in other adverse scenarios, and these numbers are a point of attention so that both residential consumers and large investors can make the best decision,” highlighted Takata.
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