Projections released in December of last year by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy) pointed out that the Brazil would end 2024 with an installed solar energy capacity of 45 GW.
However, throughout the year, what we saw was a sector that, despite all the difficulties encountered – such as rejected projects due to flow inverters, high dollar and increased taxes on equipment – achieved results above expectations.
According to data from the entity, Brazil not only surpassed the projected mark of 45 GW in August, four months ahead of the estimated deadline, but also now has more than 50 GW installed.
These numbers consider both self-generation systems installed on roofs, facades and small plots of land, as well as large plants.
According to the projection initially released, more than 9,3 GW of installed power would be added in the country in 2024, an increase of almost 20% compared to the 37,8 GW installed up to December 2023. However, the growth was even greater, with approximately 13 GW added.
On this occasion, the ABSOLAR also believed that Brazil would end 2024 with 31 GW from DG (distributed generation) systems and 14 GW from GC (centralized generation) plants, totaling 45 GW.
However, the numbers, towards the end of the year, exceeded these projections, reaching more than 34 GW in GD and 16 GW in GC, as illustrated in the image below:
Evaluation of numbers
Ao Canal Solar, Ronaldo Koloszuk, Chairman of the Board of Directors of ABSOLAR, highlighted that despite having presented expressive numbers on paper in 2024, the year was marked by a challenging period for the photovoltaic market.
The professional highlights that it was a period with many difficulties for distributed generation, especially due to distributors' refusal to connect, due to allegations of power flow inversion.
“This problem has harmed consumers and integrators in different regions of Brazil, delaying the growth of solar energy and leading to the closure of companies and the loss of increasingly important green jobs for the country,” he said.
In centralized generation, power cuts (curtailment or constrained-off) have harmed generators' revenue, made it difficult to fulfill contracts and compromised investments in new large solar plants.
“The national electricity matrix lost out as a result of this, as it stopped receiving clean and competitive energy, which ended up being wasted due to these cuts,” highlighted the executive.
Furthermore, Koloszuk recalls that, at the end of the year, the increase in import tax on photovoltaic modules and the cancellation of part of the import tax-exempt quotas already established by the Federal Government brought yet another obstacle to the sector.
“Therefore, although the year’s numbers are positive and demonstrate a robust role for solar photovoltaic sources in the Brazilian electricity matrix, it is important to highlight that the sector faced a series of challenges and barriers, which required a lot of resilience and adaptation from companies and professionals.
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