The recommendation from the technical area of the TCU (Federal Court of Accounts) is that the ANEEL The National Electric Energy Agency's assessment of the possibility of intervening in the concession of Enel São Paulo (SP) has reignited the debate about the regulatory limits and governance of energy distributors in the country.
Although the TCU document highlights the "recurrence of events" and a "systemic degradation of quality" in recent years, two experts consulted by Canal Solar assesses that, despite the seriousness of the situation, intervention is a legally complex and politically delicate path, and in practice, has a low probability of being adopted.
The technical report from the AudElétrica unit (Specialized Audit in Electrical and Nuclear Energy), sent to the reporting minister Augusto Nardes, indicates that Enel SP has not proven the definitive regularization of the faults that led to successive blackouts since 2023.
Among the points highlighted are the lack of evidence of structural corrections, the recurrence of critical problems, and the ineffectiveness of punitive measures applied by... ANEEL over the last few years.
The assessment is that the emergency actions presented by the distributor between 2024 and 2025, although they brought improvements, would not be sufficient to demonstrate stability during the wet season, when historically the following occur: failures more serious.
The prolonged suspension of power supply after gales, recorded in 2023 and 2024 with winds exceeding 100 km/h, gave the issue political repercussions and led to the opening of an investigation process that could even result in the termination of the concession.
However, as she herself ANEEL As highlighted to the TCU (Brazilian Federal Court of Accounts), definitive proof of the improvements will require monitoring Enel SP's performance throughout the rainy season, which is why the agency proposed extending the monitoring until March 2026.
According to Luís Priolli, a partner in the energy area at Vitalino Advogados, the TCU's recommendation comes at a time when... ANEEL The company is already facing an extremely complex task: deciding, by the end of 2026, whether or not to accept the request for renewal of the concession, which expires in 2028. "The intervention would consume four to six months of studies alone, and this would practically make it impossible to analyze the renewal within the planned timeframe," he points out, arguing that the measure, while technically possible, would tend to be ineffective given the regulatory calendar.
The political impact is another point raised by Priolli. With the 2026 general elections approaching, any drastic move involving the country's largest distributor could be interpreted as interference or an electoral tool.
Furthermore, he points out that an intervention depends on a presidential decree and that any delays in the intervener's report—which must be delivered within 180 days—could lead to the automatic return of the concession to the company, as well as opening the door to compensation claims. "It's an extremely high-risk environment," he states.
Urias Martiniano Neto, a lawyer specializing in the energy sector, points out that current legislation — especially Law 12.767/2012 — has broadened the legal scope for the... ANEEL Evaluate interventions not only based on economic and financial considerations, but also on operational problems and inadequate service delivery.
Even so, he classifies the possibility of an intervention in Enel SP as an extremely new precedent with a major impact, both regulatory and international. "An intervention would have strong repercussions on the market's perception of risk," he believes.
Urias also points out that implementing this measure would require a robust justification and a meticulous administrative process, which contrasts with the personnel and agenda limitations of... ANEELFor him, more than a drastic action, the TCU's recommendation serves as an institutional warning. "It's an important signal, but I don't believe intervention will occur. The sector needs a structured solution, built with..." ANEEL"The Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), the Federal Audit Court (TCU), the state government, and the company itself," it indicates.
The lawyer also agrees that it is contradictory to consider intervening while simultaneously keeping open the possibility of renewing the concession. "The two things don't combine. Before any extreme step, it's necessary to understand if the company is capable of operating the largest distribution area in the country," he says.
Both experts agree that the TCU's recommendation creates pressure on the sector, but does not imply mandatory intervention. The court only asks that... ANEEL Study the instrument, assess the risks, and document whether the measure makes sense in the current context, including for the purposes of future regulatory precedents.
Meanwhile, Enel SP claims to have fully complied with the Recovery Plan presented in 2024 and maintains that there has been a significant improvement in service indicators, especially in the average restoration time and long-duration incidents, with reductions of 50% and 90%, respectively, since 2023.
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