Next Monday (22), the beginning of spring marks the transition from the dry to the wet season and brings good prospects for the Brazilian electricity sector. The season is expected to see an increase in temperature and humidity, factors that favor the formation of instabilities and the gradual return of rain.
According to an analysis by Nottus, a company specializing in meteorological data intelligence, conditions for hydroelectric generation are positive, in contrast to the downward trend in production from solar and wind sources in the coming months.
"September began with little rain across much of the country, with the heaviest rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul. At the same time, we observed the gradual evolution of instability in the Amazon, which is typical of the transition to the wet season. In the coming days, frontal systems fueled by this moisture should bring the first episodes of rain to the Southeast and Central-West regions," says Desirée Brandt, executive partner and meteorologist at Nottus.
Cooling waters in the central Equatorial Pacific already indicate the formation of a La Niña phenomenon, which is expected to persist until early 2026. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC-NOAA) estimates a 71% chance of the phenomenon occurring between October and December. Despite this, there is no forecast of prolonged drought in the south of the country, a common scenario during other La Niña episodes.
According to the European Model (ECMWF), October should mark the effective beginning of the wet season in central Brazil. In November, rainfall tends to intensify between the Southeast and North regions, reaching volumes above the historical average in much of the territory. In December, the rainfall pattern consolidates, with significant accumulations in the Southeast, North, and also in part of the South.
This climate behavior tends to directly benefit the river basins of the Southeast/Central-West, North, and Northeast subsystems, which account for much of the country's water storage. Flow rates and reservoir levels are expected to gradually recover throughout the spring and early summer.
Nottus' analysis also indicates a low risk of intense and prolonged heat waves this year, which reinforces a more balanced scenario for the energy sector.
all the content of Canal Solar is protected by copyright law, and partial or total reproduction of this site in any medium is expressly prohibited. If you are interested in collaborating or reusing part of our material, please contact us by email: redacao@canalsolar.com.br.
