In an optimistic regulatory scenario, Brazil has the conditions to surpass the 70 GW mark of installed power in GD (distributed generation) by the end of 2034, according to the forecast of EPE (Energy research company).
The data was released this Tuesday (25), in the micro and mini distributed generation notebook of PDE (Ten-Year Energy Plan) 2034 – a document that is still being prepared and that serves to guide public policies and the operation of the national electrical system. According to the projection, the installed capacity of DG systems would more than double in relation to the current 30 GW, reaching more than 8,6 million consumers and R$ 162 billion in accumulated investments.
This, however, is not EPE's reference scenario, given the regulatory uncertainties that still need to be defined by the Federal Government. For this reason, the entity believes that the modality should reach 58,8 GW by 2034 in a stable reality and, at least, around 46,9 GW in the worst possible regulatory scenario, as shown in the image below:
The reference scenario used as a basis only considers the collection of 100% of TUSD Distribuição from 2029 onwards, where approximately 50% of the costs (charges, transmission, losses, among others) would be discounted through the benefits.
The upper scenario simulates compensation equal to TE Energia + 100% of costs (as was the original one-to-one compensation), while the lower scenario works with compensation only for the TE Energia portion from 2029 onwards.
Other study highlights
The EPE study also brought other projections and highlights regarding the future of the micro and mini distributed generation segment in Brazil within the reference scenario.
Among the DG consumption classes, the survey indicates that the residential segment will continue to be the most prominent, with almost 25 GW of installed capacity by 2034 – a growth of almost 80% compared to the current 14 GW.
Over the next ten years, São Paulo should not only continue to be the state with the largest volume of installed power, with 10,9 GW in 2034, but also increase its share in relation to other locations, such as Minas Gerais (5,7 GW) and Rio de Janeiro (4,9 GW).
In turn, in relation to the participation of sources in the form of distributed generation, the PDE 2034 reference scenario projects that solar energy will maintain its hegemony in relation to other generation technologies.
“Distributed micro and minigeneration is becoming a protagonist in the expansion of installed capacity in Brazil. In 2023, for the third year in a row, the distributed solar source surpassed the expansion of all other sources, in terms of installed capacity”, highlights the EPE study.
Regulatory uncertainties
According to EPE, the publication of the Law No. 14.300/2022, which created the regulatory framework for DG in Brazil, helped to bring more legal certainty and shed light on the likely regulatory scenario for the modality.
“However, despite the guidelines for valuing the costs and benefits of distributed generation having been established through CNPE Resolution No. 2/2024, there are still uncertainties related to the remuneration of energy injected into the grid from 2029 onwards, arising from the methodology calculation of DG benefits for the electricity sector”, highlights EPE.
According to the entity, this lack of definition arises from the fact that the ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency) having to define the points of this methodology, something that has not yet been elaborated, done, much less published.
“Even though it only affects remuneration from 2029 onwards, its definition should influence investments throughout the decade as it affects the cash flow of these projects”, pointed out EPE.
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