The ONS (National Electric System Operator) warned, in its latest update of projections for energy supply until February 2026, that the use of additional thermal generation will be necessary to ensure the balance of the system.
The measure, according to the agency, arises from the possibility of less favorable power scenarios, especially in moments where high peak loads coincide with low wind power production.
The data was presented during the regular meeting of the CMSE (Electric Sector Monitoring Committee), held on the 10th.
To reduce risks, the ONS also highlights the need to maximize generation at the Itaipu hydroelectric plant and the São Francisco River plants, minimizing the use of operating reserves.
Despite this situation, the operator highlighted that reservoir storage is evolving within normal limits, ensuring adequate conditions for energy supply in the analyzed horizon.
In August, the average storage level of the National Interconnected System (SIN) reached 62%, above the 58% recorded in the same period of 2024. By region, the rates were 58% in the Southeast/Central-West, 90% in the South, 60% in the Northeast and 88% in the North.
ONS Director General Marcio Rea, according to the organization's press release, points out that the country is already past the halfway point of the dry season and that there is still great uncertainty about the start of the next wet season.
Rea emphasizes that the Operator is implementing several operational measures to ensure cargo service, even in challenging scenarios, such as delays during the rainy season.
The objective, according to the executive, is to make sufficient resources available for peak times and maintain reasonable levels in the SIN reservoirs.
Inflow projections between September 2025 and February 2026 remain below the Long-Term Average (LTA), ranging from 66% to 98%. In a pessimistic scenario, energy stored in the Southeast/Central-West at the end of February 2026 would be 21,6 percentage points below that recorded in the same month of 2025.
In the most optimistic scenario, the level would be 2,5 percentage points higher than the previous year. For the SIN as a whole, the difference could range from 17,6 percentage points lower to 4 percentage points higher compared to February 2025.
Among other recommendations, the ONS advocates reducing the minimum flow rate of the Belo Monte intermediate reservoir from 300 m³/s to 100 m³/s, repeating a measure already adopted in 2024.
Furthermore, it recommends reducing inflows to the Jupiá and Porto Primavera plants, whenever possible and without compromising energy supply, to preserve the water resources of the Paraná River basin.
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