Reservoirs are expected to start August with more than 50% of capacity across the country

The ONS (National Electric System Operator) announced, in the PMO (Monthly Operation Program) bulletin for the last operational week of July, that EAR (Stored Energy) levels — an indicator that represents the amount of energy stored in hydroelectric reservoirs — should exceed the 50% mark in all subsystems in the country by the end of the month.

The most optimistic forecast is for the North region, which should end July with 90,8% EAR. The other regions have the following percentages: South with 78,4%, Northeast with 60,9%, and Southeast/Central-West with 59,4%.

According to the ONS, levels above 50% are considered adequate to guarantee the safe operation of the SIN (National Interconnected System), but require monitoring, especially during the dry season, when natural water replenishment is lower.

The ENA (Influent Natural Energy) — the volume of water that reaches the reservoirs and can be converted into energy — is estimated below the MLT (Long Term Average), which corresponds to the historical average of the inflow volume recorded over decades.

For August, the predicted values of ENA relative to MLT are:

• South: 82% of MLT;
• Southeast/Central-West: 76%;
• North: 65%;
• Northeast: 47%.

According to the director-general of ONS, Marcio Rea, the stability in storage levels “guarantees the SIN’s operating conditions to safely and efficiently meet the country’s energy demands,” he said.

He also highlighted that the Operator continues to adopt a policy of preserving water resources, especially during the dry season — which runs from May to September — when reduced rainfall can impact the levels of hydroelectric reservoirs, requiring greater rigor in the management of the SIN (National Interconnected System).

Demand and CMO

Forecasts for load demand in August indicate growth in three of the four subsystems. The largest increase is expected to occur in the South, with 3,5% (13.550 MWmed), followed by the North, with 2,4% (8.268 MWmed), and the Northeast, with 0,3% (12.786 MWmed). 

The Southeast/Central-West region is expected to register a 2,7% decline (42.205 MWmed), which also impacts the consolidated result of the SIN, with a slight drop of 0,6% (76.809 MWmed).

The CMO (Marginal Operating Cost), the value that guides the price of energy in the short-term market, remains unified for all subsystems, set at R$315,08/MWh for the next operating week. 

Click here to check the ONS report in full.

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