The business dynamics recorded by BBCE in December 2025 send a clear signal to the market: faced with escalating energy prices, agents accelerated the closing of contracts as a strategy to protect against even greater exposure in the free market throughout 2026.
Traditionally marked by lower liquidity due to the end-of-year holidays and the slowdown in economic activity, the month of December deviated from the norm. BBCE ended the period with a historical record of monthly transactions: 6,2 contracts were closed, an increase of 211,6% compared to December 2024 and 32,9% compared to November 2025.
In financial terms, the volume traded reached R$ 7,7 billion – an increase of 159,7% year-on-year and 65,4% compared to the previous month. The volume of energy traded also grew significantly, with an increase of 35,6% year-on-year.
According to Eduardo Rosseti, Executive Director of Sales, Products, Marketing and External Communication at BBCE, the main factor driving this price pressure is the unfavorable hydrological scenario. “We are experiencing a wet season well below average. Today, for example, the level of reservoirs in the Southeast region is around 43%, which is very low for this time of year.”
Price data from the second week of January reinforces this interpretation. BBCE It showed a positive variation between 5,28% and 8,02% in the product for the first quarter of 2026. For contracts maturing in the second quarter, the increases were significantly more intense, ranging between 19,31% and 21,30%.
According to Rosseti, the smaller variation in the first quarter reflects a volatility that had already been partially priced in by market participants. The more abrupt movement in the second quarter, in turn, indicates an expectation of structurally higher prices throughout 2026.
“This increase of around 20% that we highlighted is very concentrated in April, which was the month with the highest rise. The market already expected high prices for January, February, and March, which are still within the wet season. This was already somewhat priced in. The problem is when you maintain a poor ENA [Natural Inflow Energy] for a longer period in such a sensitive model, the outlook becomes one of high prices for a longer period, possibly throughout the entire year,” said the executive.
ENA measures the volume of rainfall with the potential to be converted into energy for hydroelectric plants. The Southeast submarket is a benchmark for the sector, concentrating approximately 70% of the country's energy storage capacity.
In the Southeast region, in December 2024, the ENA (Energy Not Supplied) reached 97% of the MLT (Long-Term Average), a percentage that fell to 71% in the same period of 2025. In January 2025, the indicator reached 98% of the... MLTcompared to just 56% in January of this year, according to data from the ONS (National System Operator).
The deteriorating water situation is also reflected in the reservoir levels of the SIN (National Interconnected System). In January 2025, the energy stored in the Southeast region was at 62,03%. This year, the index has fallen to 43,03%, even during the wet season, highlighting a more pressured system.
Price comparisons help to illustrate the shift in levels. In the second quarter of 2025, conventional energy was trading at around R$ 110/MWh. For the same period in 2026, the value is already approaching R$ 330/MWh, according to BBCE. The spread for incentivized energy is around R$ 30/MWh.
“Normally, the second quarter reacts with a delay, because when the reservoir finishes its fullest wet season, prices tend to fall in March. What we are seeing now is a correction from that quarter, and in a more accelerated way,” Rossetti stated.
According to the executive, the scenario demands a more proactive stance from market participants. “When we look at the curve being published now, the scenario is worrying. With this reservoir level and a very sensitive model, the system can easily become stressed. If you are a consumer, it makes sense to start protecting your position so as not to be exposed to greater stress in the future. It's a bad macroeconomic scenario: high demand, low reservoirs, persistent heat, and a very volatile model. Protection becomes a strategy,” he concluded.
The ONS (National System Operator) projected the ENA (Energy Not Supplied) for the period from January to June 2026 at historically low levels. In the most favorable scenario within the uncertainty range, the estimate is 76% of the MLT (Long-Term Average), a level that, if confirmed, will represent the sixth worst result in the 96-year historical series. In the pessimistic scenario, the projection falls to 49% of the MLT – the worst level ever recorded in the entire historical series.
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