Projections released last December by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Photovoltaic Solar Energy Association) indicated that Brazil would end 2026 with an installed solar energy capacity of 75,9 GW.
However, throughout the year, what we saw was a sector that, even with all the difficulties encountered – such as the generation cuts (curtailment) and the difficulties in connecting new systems due to alleged power flow reversal – obtained results above expectations.
According to current data, Brazil has not only surpassed the projected mark of 75,9 GW just over three months ahead of schedule, but has also already accumulated 77,6 GW of installed solar power.
These figures take into account both self-generation systems installed by consumers and large solar power plants.
According to the initial projection, 10,6 GW of installed capacity would be added in the country in 2026, compared to the 11,4 GW added in 2025, which would represent a decrease of approximately 7% in the annual rate of expansion of solar energy.
On this occasion, the ABSOLAR It also estimated that Brazil would end 2026 with 51,8 GW from distributed generation (DG) systems and 24,1 GW from centralized generation (CG) plants, totaling 75,9 GW.
However, the figures recorded with more than three months still to go have already exceeded the total projection for the year. Currently, the country has a total of 54 GW in distributed generation and 23,6 GW in controlled generation.
As a result, distributed generation is already 2,2 GW above the capacity projected for December, while centralized generation remains 0,5 GW below the estimate.
In total, solar power already exceeds by 1,7 GW the capacity that was expected for the end of 2026.
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