Solar DG should attract investments of R$70 billion by 2030

Photovoltaic DG (distributed generation) should receive investments of around R$70 billion over the next 10 years, according to a study by EPE (Energy Research Company) in Ten-Year Energy Plan 2030. According to the survey, the installed capacity of these systems could reach 24,5 GW in 2030, in a scenario without major changes in the current rules for remuneration of the energy generated.

The forecast is more optimistic than a scenario outlined by EPE last year, in its 2029 Ten-Year Plan, which indicated 11,4 GW in DG at the end of the ten-year period and investments of almost R$50 billion. The projection by the state-owned company, linked to the MME (Ministry of Mines and Energy), is based on a so-called “summer scenario”, in which the government would maintain a policy of major incentives for these systems, making subtle changes to the current regulations.

In another case, the “spring scenario”, with a reduction in tariff incentives for distributed generation, investments would total R$50 billion by 2030, while installed capacity would reach 16,8 GW.

Increase in photovoltaic systems

The study also pointed out that the number of consumers with their own generation systems would be 3 million in the next 10 years in the optimistic scenario and 2 million in the more moderate forecasts.

The state-owned company also assessed that photovoltaic solar panels should account for 79% of the energy delivered by DG in 2030, with hydroelectric systems in second place, with 11%. According to EPE, distributed generation should contribute 4,6% and 3,2% of the total energy load in 2030, in the summer and spring scenarios, respectively.

More optimistic projection

According to the most optimistic projection, the DG growth curve in Brazil it could be even greater, reaching 35,8 GW of installed capacity by the end of the next decade. In this scenario, full maintenance of current rules is considered. In other words, full compensation of the tariff components and without the application of a binomial tariff.

GD continues to grow in Brazil

Since 2013, photovoltaic DG grew at an average rate of 230% per year in Brazil, according to data released by ABSOLAR (Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy). Distributed generation in the country also recorded a increase of 77,83% in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period last year.

This is what an exclusive survey carried out by Canal Solar. Currently, according to the ANEEL (National Electric Energy Agency), DG installations total around 3,66 GW in installed capacity in Brazil.